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Here are three factors to keep in mind going forward. Hospitalizations and deaths are also becoming more prevalent among younger people, another distinction from prior surges.Īll in all, the situation is much messier than it was last year, when hospitalizations and deaths would grow like clockwork following a rise in cases. The delta variant appears more transmissible than those that came before it, and, while the vaccines seem to be holding up well against it, it is still accounting for a bigger and bigger share of cases in the US. Still, so long as the virus is circulating, there are risks, especially to the half of the population who haven’t been vaccinated. “We’re seeing an increase in deaths but not nearly to the degree previously.” “The decoupling between cases and deaths has really occurred,” Andrew Pavia, who specializes in infectious diseases at the University of Utah, told reporters at an Infectious Diseases Society of America briefing last week. The Biden administration announced in early July that nearly all the Covid-19 hospitalizations and deaths being reported are of unvaccinated people. Some of those people could still contract the virus, but their illness is much more likely to be mild if they have received the vaccine. Sign up to receive our newsletter each Friday.īut this time, about half of the country is now fully vaccinated against Covid-19. Vox’s German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administration’s burst of policymaking. This is still true - when cases accelerate, so do deaths, eventually - and the current trends reflect that basic reality. But that only makes the rise in confirmed cases more concerning.) (One caveat: Testing rates have dropped significantly in the past few months, so we may not be detecting every new case. Somebody tests positive for the disease, but it may take two weeks for them to become sick enough to go to the hospital and even longer for them to die if they do not recover. Both measures are still growing, if not yet as rapidly as cases.Ĭonfirmed cases are a leading indicator.
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Deaths, likewise, are still comparatively low: a seven-day average of 258, compared to January when the US was losing more than 3,000 people per day. So far, hospitalizations have not increased as much: They’re up about one-third compared to two weeks ago. By late June, the country was averaging just 11,000 new cases per day.īut as of July 18, the US is seeing more than 31,000 new cases daily on average, nearly triple the case levels of just a few weeks ago. Tens of millions of people were inoculated against Covid-19 in the following months. Since early January, when the United States hit a peak of 260,000 new cases every day on average, case numbers have been in more or less constant decline. But this time, the story is more complicated than it was in previous waves. Covid-19 cases are on the rise in the United States again.